Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B4 0xb4b1…f648 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-29%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -47.5% -52.5% 50% 0% -58.1%
≤30d 2 -47.5% -52.5% 50% 0% -58.1%
≤90d 6 -16.2% -24.2% 67% 33% -44.8%
all 6 -16.2% -24.2% 67% 33% -44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 33% -44.8%
10% -31.5% 33% -50.0%
15% -38.1% 33% -54.9%
20% -44.2% 0% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage54d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? May 02 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 41d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 44d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 50d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.96 · official $7.96 (match) · 12 history records