Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:54:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4b6…0963 crypto 216 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$76 (-11%) realized −$77 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%135W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day63.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$103
sports 1% +$25
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 +1.9% -7.8% 63% 57% -21.5%
≤30d 214 +1.9% -7.8% 63% 57% -21.5%
≤90d 214 +1.9% -7.8% 63% 57% -21.5%
all 214 +1.9% -7.8% 63% 57% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 57% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 50% -29.0%
15% -24.7% 41% -35.8%
20% -32.1% 25% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses135 / 79
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 216
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day63.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +456%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.75 · official $1.75 (match) · 357 history records