Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4bc…e613 crypto 377 markets active 18h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$135 (-8%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate66%247W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$27
14 days−$74
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -13.2% -21.5% 60% 55% -22.5%
≤30d 377 -10.1% -18.7% 66% 43% -17.6%
≤90d 377 -10.1% -18.7% 66% 43% -17.6%
all 377 -10.1% -18.7% 66% 43% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 43% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 29% -25.5%
15% -33.6% 15% -32.7%
20% -40.1% 9% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses247 / 130
Open positions0
Markets (closed)377 / 377
History coverage26d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 377 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 715 history records