Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4bd…62c6 other 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%27W / 53L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1
world 35% −$6
politics 8% +$2
sports 5% +$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.1% -13.3% 43% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 8 -3.6% -12.8% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 20 -1.1% -10.5% 45% 0% -9.6%
all 80 +0.3% -9.2% 34% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage453d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $141 $141 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $23 −$6 -29%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $152 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $162 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $162 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $274 −$6 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $96 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $312 +$4 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $118 $0 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $52 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $902 $0 -0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 13 $902 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $903 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $385 +$2 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $54 +$4 +8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $898 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $898 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 10 $988 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $186 −$2 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 18 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 18 $8 $0 -5%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Aug 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $12 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 13 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15 Aug 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 10 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $23 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $119 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $16 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $23 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $119 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $147 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $162 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $162 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $162 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $162 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $119 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $101 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $21 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $96 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $96 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $141 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $149 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $105 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $48 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $148 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $118 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $118 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $55 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $109 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.22 · official $141.22 (match) · 249 history records