Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B4 0xb4c2…f88b weather 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$52 (+5%) realized +$62 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate84%57W / 11L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$45
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +0.9% -8.7% 83% 55% -5.4%
≤30d 68 +1.9% -7.8% 84% 56% -5.3%
≤90d 68 +1.9% -7.8% 84% 56% -5.3%
all 68 +1.9% -7.8% 84% 56% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 56% -5.3%
10% -16.7% 12% -14.4%
15% -24.7% 3% -22.7%
20% -32.1% 3% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses57 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage9d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 +$24 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 +$19 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $22 −$8 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$6 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $85 +$15 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $77 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $70 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $63 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $59 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $21 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$10 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $23 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 1m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $12 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? SELL Yes 48¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 75¢ $22 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 79¢ $16 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 65¢ $36 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 55¢ $16 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $17 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $11 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.16 · official $12.16 (match) · 163 history records