Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B4 0xb4c5…b275 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$314 (+31%) realized +$375 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$300
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.7% +2.0% 50% 50% +38.4%
≤30d 8 +12.7% +2.0% 50% 50% +38.4%
≤90d 8 +12.7% +2.0% 50% 50% +38.4%
all 8 +12.7% +2.0% 50% 50% +38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 50% +38.4%
10% -7.8% 38% +25.1%
15% -16.7% 38% +13.0%
20% -24.8% 38% +2.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$11 · ×8.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.95 per $1 lost it wins $8.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized+$375
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 68¢ $330 $269 −$61 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $332 +$48 +14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$115 +226%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$118 +197%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $187 +$121 +65%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$14 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $332 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $380 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 87¢ $332 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $60 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $187 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 42h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 42h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.11 · official $269.11 (match) · 13 history records