Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb4c5…f3be sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,541 (+26%) realized +$4,541 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$1,009per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$299est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,903
7 days+$1,634
14 days+$471
30 days+$4,502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$4,502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.1% -5.8% 55% 45% +5.9%
≤30d 17 +4.8% -5.2% 53% 47% +14.4%
≤90d 17 +4.8% -5.2% 53% 47% +14.4%
all 17 +4.8% -5.2% 53% 47% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 47% +14.4%
10% -14.3% 47% +3.4%
15% -22.5% 41% -6.6%
20% -30.1% 41% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,170) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,114 vs −$690 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,541
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$299
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1,009
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $510 −$500 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 22 $709 +$518 +73%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $1,009 −$46 -5%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $1,124 +$1,282 +114%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $2,061 +$650 +32%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $1,180 −$1,158 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $594 −$579 -97%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $597 −$584 -98%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $626 +$741 +118%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1,194 +$1,310 +110%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $1,180 −$1,162 -98%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1,170 +$694 +59%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $419 −$408 -98%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $2,469 +$2,922 +118%
Centurion 2: Robert Strombachs vs Philip Henning Jun 04 $1,106 −$1,083 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $1,204 +$1,906 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Luca Castelnuovo 32¢ $510 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar SELL Zizou Bergs 100¢ $1,227 2h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez SELL Juan Bautista Torres 67¢ $963 2h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Juan Bautista Torres 69¢ $1,009 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Vilius Gaubas 46¢ $1,124 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar BUY Zizou Bergs 57¢ $709 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY Andrea Guerrieri 34¢ $3 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY Andrea Guerrieri 47¢ $873 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin SELL David Goffin 52¢ $854 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin SELL David Goffin 51¢ $20 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY David Goffin 69¢ $1,185 9h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 36¢ $5 3d
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 36¢ $1,176 3d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 11¢ $4 4d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 11¢ $590 4d
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 33¢ $3 5d
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 29¢ $594 5d
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Martina Trevisan 49¢ $9 6d
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 46¢ $9 6d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $1,368 6d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 45¢ $626 6d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 100¢ $2,504 6d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 46¢ $4 6d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 47¢ $1,191 6d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 50¢ $3 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 50¢ $1,177 11d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 100¢ $1,864 15d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 62¢ $2 15d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 62¢ $1,167 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 14¢ $419 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records