Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb4c5…378a sports 302 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,163 (+1%) realized +$4,347 · open −$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%184W / 114L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$1,427per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$4,537est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$607now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$492
7 days−$1,016
14 days−$4,745
30 days+$3,571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$7,558
politics 12% +$69
other 1% −$652
world 1% −$28
finance 1% −$2,481
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -12.2% -20.6% 59% 44% -11.8%
≤30d 226 +1.4% -8.3% 62% 42% -8.7%
≤90d 298 +0.8% -8.8% 62% 45% -8.5%
all 298 +0.8% -8.8% 62% 45% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 45% -8.5%
10% -17.6% 32% -17.3%
15% ← realistic here -25.5% 25% -25.3%
20% -32.8% 19% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,720) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$275 vs −$418 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$607
Realized+$4,347
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses184 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$4,537
Open positions5
Markets (closed)298 / 302
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$1,427
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Team Spirit 88¢ 100¢ $378 $429 +$51 (+14%)
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Yes 36¢ 14¢ $313 $122 −$191 (-61%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $89 $51 −$38 (-43%)
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? No 21¢ 6¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $430 +$70 +16%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $479 −$294 -61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,030 +$613 +15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $7,399 +$272 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $55 −$47 -86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $6,412 −$1,226 -19%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $245 +$255 +104%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $180 +$320 +178%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $884 +$116 +13%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $823 −$322 -39%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $635 +$185 +29%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $1,239 +$123 +10%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $1,449 +$747 +52%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $255 +$114 +45%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $507 −$474 -93%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $480 −$480 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $625 −$625 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $750 −$750 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $2,411 +$124 +5%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,732 +$770 +44%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $200 +$50 +25%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $351 +$7 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,720 +$280 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $660 −$660 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4,974 +$536 +11%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $300 +$199 +66%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $42 +$1 +2%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $548 −$48 -9%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $490 −$490 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $310 −$310 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,064 −$417 -39%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,567 +$541 +34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $580 −$580 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $892 +$836 +94%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $112 +$137 +122%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $517 −$517 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $9,407 −$697 -7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2,412 −$2,412 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $107 −$107 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,475 +$270 +11%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $500 +$499 +100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $1,940 +$60 +3%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $4,950 +$50 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,350 $0 -0%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 18¢ $64 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 18¢ $103 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 25¢ $18 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $28 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 26¢ $39 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 87¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $74 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $176 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 65¢ $76 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 65¢ $46 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 65¢ $26 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 65¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 88¢ $366 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 89¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 86¢ $430 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $129 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $200 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $30 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $100 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $567 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $535 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $22 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $5 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,000 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $35 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $32 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $357 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $606.79 · official $606.79 (match) · 3500 history records