Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:08:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4c8…e465 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$104 (-15%) realized −$68 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$80
14 days−$80
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$137
sports 1% +$25
economics 1% −$10
world 1% +$2
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +38.6% +25.4% 33% 33% -30.5%
≤30d 9 +38.6% +25.4% 33% 33% -30.5%
≤90d 9 +38.6% +25.4% 33% 33% -30.5%
all 15 +6.6% -3.6% 33% 33% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 33% -25.7%
10% -12.8% 33% -32.8%
15% -21.2% 20% -39.3%
20% -28.9% 13% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage170d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $131 $134 +$3 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 25¢ 10¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-59%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Yes 12¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $85 −$49 -57%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $99 +$50 +50%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $5 +$25 +501%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$25 +244%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 $0 -5%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $39 −$36 -93%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $86 −$78 -92%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 23 $81 +$26 +32%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 22 $9 +$2 +24%
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Jan 20 $4 $0 -5%
Will Mali win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 25¢ $64 1h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $17 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 11¢ $98 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 21h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $15 21h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 56¢ $30 21h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 3d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 4d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $35 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 107d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $5 107d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $40 107d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 107d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 107d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 114d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 114d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 114d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 114d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.63 · official $184.63 (match) · 57 history records