Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B4 0xb4c8…dc44 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$68 (+10%) realized +$140 · open −$72

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate53%8W / 7L

Drawdown60%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$12

7 days+$80

14 days+$65

30 days+$65

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+19.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+81.9%	+64.5%	100%	100%	+45.8%
≤30d	6	-9.1%	-17.7%	50%	50%	+30.8%
≤90d	6	-9.1%	-17.7%	50%	50%	+30.8%
all	15	+31.7%	+19.2%	53%	47%	+24.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.2%	47%	+24.1%
10%	+7.8%	47%	+12.3%
15%	-2.6%	40%	+1.4%
20%	-12.2%	40%	-8.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +45% too few recent

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +104% → late -32% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$33 vs −$16 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage

Net worth$158

Realized+$140

Unrealized−$72

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses8 / 7

Open positions8

Markets (closed)15 / 25

History coverage153d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown60%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	55¢	57¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	40¢	40¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	52¢	56¢	$25	$27	+$2 (+9%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	61¢	56¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-7%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-98%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-99%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$20	+$12	+57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	+$55	+55%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	+$14	+134%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings?	Jan 29	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	Jan 29	$70	−$70	-100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during I	Jan 28	$5	+$6	+127%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	Jan 27	$25	+$121	+486%
Will Trump say "Davos" or "World Economic Forum" during Iowa speech?	Jan 26	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 15+ times during Iowa speech?	Jan 26	$5	−$5	-100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26?	Jan 26	$10	+$29	+288%
Israel strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?	Jan 26	$1	$0	+5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?	Jan 26	$120	+$30	+25%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	61¢	$20	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	52¢	$25	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	40¢	$31	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$30	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	55¢	$51	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	63¢	$20	1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$10	7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1	BUY	49¢	$20	7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY	59¢	$10	7d
Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings?	BUY Yes	34¢	$20	146d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	BUY Yes	50¢	$50	146d
Will Trump say "Davos" or "World Economic Forum" during Iowa speech?	BUY Yes	38¢	$5	149d
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 15+ times during Iowa speech?	BUY No	19¢	$5	149d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during I	BUY No	44¢	$5	149d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26?	SELL Up	97¢	$39	149d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?	BUY Yes	11¢	$25	149d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?	BUY Yes	15¢	$25	149d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?	BUY Yes	23¢	$25	149d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26?	BUY Up	25¢	$10	149d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	BUY Yes	35¢	$20	149d
Israel strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$1	149d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?	SELL Yes	99¢	$150	149d
Israel strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$1	151d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?	BUY Yes	79¢	$120	152d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	BUY Yes	17¢	$25	152d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.90 · official $157.91 (match) · 34 history records