Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4c8…5707 crypto 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%47W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day59.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -20.0% -27.6% 51% 37% -15.6%
≤30d 92 -20.0% -27.6% 51% 37% -15.6%
≤90d 92 -20.0% -27.6% 51% 37% -15.6%
all 92 -20.0% -27.6% 51% 37% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 37% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 23% -23.7%
15% -40.9% 14% -31.1%
20% -46.7% 8% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses47 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day59.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 346 history records