Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B4 0xb4cf…1d5a other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7,323 (-84%) realized −$7,321 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,333
7 days−$7,489
14 days−$7,499
30 days−$7,458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$7,559
other 5% +$231
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -58.2% -62.2% 20% 20% -94.3%
≤30d 14 -20.5% -28.0% 21% 21% -93.5%
≤90d 14 -20.5% -28.0% 21% 21% -93.5%
all 18 -10.5% -19.0% 39% 39% -87.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 39% -87.1%
10% -26.8% 33% -88.3%
15% -33.9% 17% -89.4%
20% -40.3% 17% -90.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$706 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$7,321
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage249d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$161 +158%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,016 −$994 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,024 −$1,997 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $4,026 −$4,000 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$90 +60%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $10 +$61 +596%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $176 +$55 +31%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 22 $139 +$38 +27%
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) Oct 15 $100 +$12 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $100 +$26 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $51 25m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 13h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $203 22h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $203 22h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 25¢ $1,016 43h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $2,024 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $4,026 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $203 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 20d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 21d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 21d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 21d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $232 230d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 76¢ $176 230d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $176 241d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 78¢ $139 241d
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) SELL T1 100¢ $112 248d
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) BUY T1 89¢ $100 248d
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $126 248d
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) BUY T1 79¢ $100 249d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.84 · official $107.84 (match) · 29 history records