Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B4 0xb4cf…c694 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$7 (+19%) realized +$7 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown14%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+5.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+17.0%	+5.9%	50%	50%	+81.9%
≤30d	2	+17.0%	+5.9%	50%	50%	+81.9%
≤90d	2	+17.0%	+5.9%	50%	50%	+81.9%
all	2	+17.0%	+5.9%	50%	50%	+81.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.9%	50%	+81.9%
10%	-4.3%	50%	+64.5%
15%	-13.5%	50%	+48.6%
20%	-22.0%	50%	+34.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +101% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.18 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.18 per $1 lost it wins $8.18

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized+$7

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage3d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown14%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5	Jun 27	$6	+$8	+134%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$1	−$1	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	42¢	$6	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	19¢	$1	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.74 · official $29.74 (match) · 4 history records