Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb4d0…a1c5 sports 1429 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,159 (-3%) realized −$9,159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%611W / 818L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Fees−$3,738est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$551
7 days−$988
14 days−$5,425
30 days−$9,437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$13,448
other 6% +$3,041
world 0% +$361
crypto 0% −$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -9.8% -18.4% 42% 41% -15.8%
≤30d 474 -17.1% -25.0% 38% 38% -19.8%
≤90d 1380 -10.5% -19.0% 42% 42% -13.3%
all 1429 -9.5% -18.1% 43% 42% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 42% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 42% -20.8%
15% -33.1% 40% -28.5%
20% -39.6% 37% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$221 vs −$178 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses611 / 818
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$3,738
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1429 / 1429
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$220
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1429 Trades
no open positions (321 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $61 +$146 +239%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego Jun 17 $116 +$41 +36%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 17 $403 −$397 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $215 −$210 -98%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $458 −$453 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$79 +52%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $91 +$96 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $320 +$337 +105%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $132 +$182 +138%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $204 +$238 +117%
Set Handicap: Batalla (-1.5) vs Passaro (+1.5) Jun 16 $172 −$170 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $103 +$69 +67%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $213 −$210 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet Jun 15 $122 −$120 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $396 +$225 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $266 −$265 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $182 −$180 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $305 +$80 +26%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $193 +$254 +132%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $142 −$140 -98%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) Jun 15 $162 −$160 -98%
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $361 +$449 +124%
Set 2 Winner: Basilashvili vs Altmaier Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $251 −$100 -40%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $132 −$90 -68%
Set 1 Winner: Basilashvili vs Altmaier Jun 15 $132 +$112 +85%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $122 −$51 -42%
Set 2 Winner: Maria vs Tjen Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $194 −$190 -98%
Schoenhaus vs. Tien: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $152 +$158 +104%
Set 1 Winner: Tarvet vs Safiullin Jun 15 $162 −$160 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $163 −$160 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $163 +$408 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $433 +$261 +60%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $62 −$29 -47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $162 −$160 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $197 +$264 +134%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $162 +$103 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $325 −$320 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $173 +$182 +105%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $173 −$170 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $183 −$180 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $142 −$140 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $142 −$127 -89%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $71 +$54 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 29¢ $61 1h
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego BUY Shelton 73¢ $116 3h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) BUY Buse 52¢ $175 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 20¢ $31 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 23¢ $51 5h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) BUY Buse 52¢ $61 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 18¢ $41 5h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 38¢ $41 5h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 45¢ $8 5h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 74¢ $272 5h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) BUY Buse 53¢ $167 9h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 28¢ $92 9h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 44¢ $137 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $71 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $91 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $314 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $158 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $91 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 41¢ $132 17h
Set Handicap: Batalla (-1.5) vs Passaro (+1.5) BUY Passaro 67¢ $172 35h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $103 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $61 44h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 46¢ $61 44h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 41¢ $143 46h
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet BUY Moutet 45¢ $30 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $82 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $152 46h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 39¢ $31 46h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 31¢ $31 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records