Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb4d2…ce99
sports · 401 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4,321 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,125 · open +$5,122
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$97,424
Realized−$1,125
Unrealized+$5,122
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses131 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2,890
Open positions239
Markets (closed)273 / 401
Avg bet$712
Trades / day2120.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 239 History 273 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,125
7 days−$1,125
14 days−$1,125
30 days−$1,125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Daniil Medvedev 87¢ 88¢ $11,457 $11,554 +$98 (+1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Under 74¢ 79¢ $8,448 $9,004 +$556 (+7%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 74¢ 82¢ $4,635 $5,200 +$565 (+12%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Under 93¢ 96¢ $4,205 $4,342 +$138 (+3%)
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Elena Rybakina 78¢ 81¢ $3,900 $4,074 +$174 (+4%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Under 72¢ 76¢ $3,776 $3,970 +$194 (+5%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Under 75¢ 78¢ $2,853 $2,972 +$119 (+4%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $2,730 $2,640 −$90 (-3%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 5¢ 39¢ $306 $2,585 +$2,280 (+745%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 92¢ $2,573 $2,540 −$33 (-1%)
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 62¢ 66¢ $2,331 $2,500 +$169 (+7%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 49¢ $2,100 $2,450 +$350 (+17%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Under 92¢ 94¢ $2,028 $2,080 +$52 (+3%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,011 $2,025 +$14 (+1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Under 79¢ 80¢ $1,789 $1,824 +$36 (+2%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $1,461 $1,461 +$0 (+0%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Under 81¢ 84¢ $1,314 $1,370 +$57 (+4%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 93¢ 89¢ $1,329 $1,271 −$57 (-4%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 20¢ 40¢ $606 $1,209 +$603 (+99%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 62¢ 81¢ $896 $1,166 +$270 (+30%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 65¢ 62¢ $1,172 $1,127 −$45 (-4%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 36¢ 19¢ $2,037 $1,078 −$960 (-47%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 37¢ 32¢ $1,238 $1,064 −$174 (-14%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 96¢ 98¢ $925 $939 +$13 (+1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 49¢ 70¢ $616 $893 +$277 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tokyo: Kayo Nishimura vs Mao Mushika Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese Jun 12 $390 −$143 -37%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 12 $38 +$25 +66%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $85 +$181 +212%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $495 −$495 -100%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $106 −$68 -65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,022 −$21 -2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $1,739 +$269 +16%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $1,940 +$567 +29%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $4,744 +$125 +3%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
ITF Brasilia: Nicolas Oliveira vs Salvador Price Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $231 +$16 +7%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $160 +$27 +17%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $214 +$363 +170%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $189 +$28 +15%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $368 −$69 -19%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $297 +$22 +7%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Patrik Schick: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 12 $0 $0 +56%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $753 +$1,459 +194%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $234 $0 -0%
Lee Kangin: 1+ assists Jun 12 $217 −$217 -100%
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $288 −$42 -15%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $354 +$72 +20%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $228 −$82 -36%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America Lea Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 12 $224 −$88 -39%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $2,303 +$1,278 +56%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,160 −$160 -14%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4,170 +$511 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% +$2,673
other 15% +$1,324
world 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 65¢ $1,172 7m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 93¢ $13 8m
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY against All authority 1¢ $5 12m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 37¢ $198 12m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 86¢ $22 12m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 74¢ $207 19m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 82¢ $71 19m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 82¢ $306 19m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 82¢ $23 19m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 58¢ $3 19m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 53¢ $31 20m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 17¢ $8 20m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 17¢ $31 20m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 86¢ $10 22m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 32¢ $67 23m
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $9 24m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato BUY Emma Ottavia Ghirardato 36¢ $234 25m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 33¢ $24 26m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 89¢ $2 27m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 34¢ $22 27m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 86¢ $12 28m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 35¢ $1 28m
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka SELL Martyna Kubka 100¢ $267 29m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 63¢ $8 29m
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 71¢ $168 32m
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 71¢ $425 33m
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Karmine Corp Blue 80¢ $435 34m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 72¢ $461 34m
Set 2 Winner: Bellucci vs Fritz BUY Bellucci 27¢ $6 35m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 90¢ $198 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -7.8% -16.6% 48% 37% -10.0%
≤30d 273 -7.8% -16.6% 48% 37% -10.0%
≤90d 273 -7.8% -16.6% 48% 37% -10.0%
all 273 -7.8% -16.6% 48% 37% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2120.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 37% -10.0%
10% -24.6% 29% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here -31.9% 22% -26.5%
20% -38.5% 18% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97,424.02 · official $97,370.04 (match) · 3500 history records