Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb4da…3fc6 crypto 1116 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-1%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate65%722W / 392L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day107.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$68
14 days−$68
30 days−$429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$363
other 15% −$14
sports 1% −$46
politics 0% −$5
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 483 -0.8% -10.3% 91% 4% -10.7%
≤30d 1114 -2.9% -12.1% 65% 24% -13.8%
≤90d 1114 -2.9% -12.1% 65% 24% -13.8%
all 1114 -2.9% -12.1% 65% 24% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 24% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 20% -22.0%
15% -28.2% 15% -29.6%
20% -35.2% 11% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses722 / 392
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1114 / 1116
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day107.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 36m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 41m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $3.52 · 3500 history records