Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4db…73f8 finance 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-8%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$1
finance 7% −$46
sports 4% −$10
other 3% −$1
world 2% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.2% -8.5% 88% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.8% -10.3% 82% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 27 -42.3% -47.8% 48% 15% -17.2%
all 30 -36.5% -42.5% 53% 20% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.5% 20% -17.1%
10% -48.0% 7% -25.1%
15% -53.0% 3% -32.3%
20% -57.6% 0% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage223d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 61¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+113%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 19? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 18 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
76ers vs. Pacers May 12 $5 +$1 +12%
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 20? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Mar 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Mar 19 $1 $0 +15%
Will Liam Rosenior be the next Chelsea manager? Mar 19 $1 $0 +37%
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 03 $1 $0 +5%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Jan 03 $1 $0 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jan 03 $1 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 27d
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 49¢ $3 27d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 86¢ $6 27d
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 71¢ $8 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 33d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY 76ers 89¢ $5 65d
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca BUY Michael Aswell 36¢ $5 87d
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa BUY South Africa 25¢ $5 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 87d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $5 87d
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 77¢ $5 87d
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.26 · official $17.15 (match) · 58 history records