Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:33:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4df…25c1 crypto 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,424 (-5%) realized −$2,489 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%127W / 144L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$2,757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$3,886
sports 1% +$73
other 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -25.2% -32.3% 38% 33% -11.2%
≤30d 70 -19.2% -26.9% 49% 37% -18.2%
≤90d 271 -2.8% -12.0% 47% 41% -16.7%
all 271 -2.8% -12.0% 47% 41% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 41% -16.7%
10% -20.5% 34% -24.6%
15% -28.1% 25% -31.9%
20% -35.2% 21% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$98 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$2,489
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses127 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)271 / 275
History coverage82d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 73¢ 97¢ $150 $201 +$51 (+34%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 100¢ $30 $55 +$25 (+82%)
Endrick: 1+ goals Yes 40¢ 42¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 66¢ 8¢ $13 $1 −$11 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$9 +55%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$13 -63%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $61 +$4 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $41 −$31 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$16 -79%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $20 −$13 -63%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $20 −$17 -83%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 +$35 +86%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 +$48 +67%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$10 +50%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $79 +$53 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39 +$40 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 25 $512 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 25 $303 +$38 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 25 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 25 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 25 $105 −$33 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 25 $505 +$83 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 25 $106 +$24 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 25 $610 +$171 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 25 $105 −$97 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 25 $114 −$54 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 25 $411 +$232 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 25 $303 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 25 $325 +$250 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 25 $300 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 23 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 23 $266 −$119 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 23 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 23 $1,045 −$1,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 23 $520 +$285 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 23 $2,050 −$497 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 23 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 23 $515 +$156 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 23 $618 −$600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 23 $307 +$143 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 23 $1,004 +$56 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 23 $415 −$415 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 23 $207 −$33 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 23 $1,369 +$213 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 23 $1,031 +$99 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $13 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 1h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $11 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $16 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 17¢ $17 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $17 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 34¢ $21 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 11¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 5¢ $4 27h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 23¢ $20 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $41 27h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 27h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.69 · official $268.69 (match) · 1404 history records