Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:45:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb4df…54db sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,321 (+7%) realized +$881 · open +$440
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$635per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$7,044now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$125
14 days−$190
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$290
sports 25% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +6.6% -3.5% 46% 46% -12.3%
≤30d 17 +3.5% -6.3% 35% 35% -13.2%
≤90d 17 +3.5% -6.3% 35% 35% -13.2%
all 17 +3.5% -6.3% 35% 35% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 35% -13.2%
10% -15.3% 29% -21.5%
15% -23.5% 29% -29.1%
20% -31.0% 24% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$112 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$7,044
Realized+$881
Unrealized+$440
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions12
Markets (closed)17 / 29
History coverage37d
Avg bet$635
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1,688 $2,710 +$1,023 (+61%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,192 $1,096 −$97 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1,000 $981 −$18 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $962 $481 −$481 (-50%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $311 $377 +$65 (+21%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $374 $371 −$3 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 70¢ $337 $352 +$16 (+5%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Over 15¢ 14¢ $328 $308 −$20 (-6%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 31¢ $174 $173 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $133 $111 −$22 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$20 -20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $439 +$67 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $206 +$94 +46%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $242 +$154 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $790 −$345 -44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $182 +$118 +64%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $290 −$277 -96%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $219 −$216 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $658 −$241 -37%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $214 +$485 +226%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $107 +$92 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $94 −$18 -19%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $154 −$18 -12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $537 −$31 -6%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $289 −$34 -12%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $422 −$19 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $308 −$13 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $4 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $8 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $28 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $33 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $156 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 15¢ $122 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $0 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $111 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $0 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $0 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,044.46 · official $7,044.46 (match) · 257 history records