Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4e0…9563 crypto 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$356 (-10%) realized −$352 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%49W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$67
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% −$129
finance 26% −$366
other 21% −$13
tech 10% −$50
economics 5% −$171
sports 4% −$80
politics 3% +$15
world 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +40.3% +27.0% 50% 50% +5.6%
≤30d 7 -6.6% -15.5% 29% 29% -1.3%
≤90d 19 -44.6% -49.9% 21% 16% -10.2%
all 115 -6.9% -15.7% 43% 37% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 37% -31.4%
10% -23.8% 34% -38.0%
15% -31.2% 28% -44.0%
20% -37.9% 24% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$21 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$352
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses49 / 66
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage372d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran leading at halftime? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $213 −$27 -13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $150 +$87 +58%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $14 +$30 +216%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $29 −$2 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 08 $11 −$10 -97%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 06 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 27 $8 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 Apr 20 $20 −$1 -6%
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamen Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $22 −$1 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $19 +$1 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $54 −$35 -64%
Meta (META) Up or Down on January 26? Jan 26 $50 −$50 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26? Jan 26 $39 −$33 -85%
Will Meta (META) close at $660-$670 on the final day of trading of the Jan 25 $75 +$15 +20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 23? Jan 23 $21 −$21 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23? Jan 23 $18 +$10 +56%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on January 22? Jan 23 $72 +$6 +9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 22? Jan 22 $61 +$11 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $6 +$5 +85%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 21? Jan 21 $42 +$14 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $39 +$3 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $32 +$6 +20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 16? Jan 16 $8 +$24 +304%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? Jan 16 $6 +$1 +23%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Jan 06 $5 $0 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 6? Jan 06 $28 −$28 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 5? Jan 05 $156 −$156 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $144 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $19 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 5? Jan 05 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 4? Jan 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 4? Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? Jan 03 $27 −$3 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 3? Jan 03 $21 −$21 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 2? Jan 02 $185 +$114 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 2? Jan 02 $181 −$19 -11%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190–195 in 2025? Dec 31 $47 −$32 -67%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185–190 in 2025? Dec 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 31? Dec 31 $22 +$78 +353%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $186 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $94 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $68 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $217 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $24 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $21 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $55 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 35h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $13 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $13 7d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 19¢ $14 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $29 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 34¢ $11 13d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 55d
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 SELL No 3¢ $5 62d
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 SELL No 3¢ $0 62d
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 SELL No 3¢ $6 62d
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 SELL No 3¢ $7 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 390 history records