Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:57:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb4e6…4a4d sports 201 markets active 3d ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42,621 (-9%) realized −$42,621 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate66%132W / 69L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,264per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$941est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days−$5,978
30 days+$1,278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$38,312
other 5% −$4,699
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -29.2% -36.0% 50% 50% -1.2%
≤30d 42 -2.3% -11.6% 76% 67% -7.9%
≤90d 86 -5.2% -14.2% 69% 62% -22.3%
all 201 -6.4% -15.3% 66% 62% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 62% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 42% -25.9%
15% -30.8% 22% -33.1%
20% -37.6% 11% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$2,998) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$679 vs −$1,923 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42,621
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses132 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$941
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage166d
Avg bet$2,264
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $55 −$53 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 21 $179 +$75 +42%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,104 +$119 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1,526 +$325 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3,430 −$3,410 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 14 $3,050 −$3,034 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,499 +$386 +26%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $1,519 +$368 +24%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 11 $1,243 +$446 +36%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $879 +$316 +36%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,257 +$314 +25%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 10 $431 +$179 +42%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $685 +$665 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $168 −$165 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 09 $862 +$309 +36%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 09 $1,213 +$363 +30%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $4,590 +$595 +13%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $4,888 +$497 +10%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $449 −$442 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 08 $255 −$251 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 08 $300 −$295 -98%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 08 $530 +$84 +16%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $879 +$316 +36%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $1,578 +$432 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $181 +$49 +27%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $829 +$804 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $1,829 +$472 +26%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 06 $2,293 +$627 +27%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $2,579 +$626 +24%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 06 $4,867 +$583 +12%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 06 $377 +$65 +17%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 06 $972 +$82 +8%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 06 $1,512 +$94 +6%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 06 $7,533 +$724 +10%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 05 $115 −$113 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 03 $2,319 +$672 +29%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 03 $3,325 +$708 +21%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) May 31 $259 +$55 +21%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $1,455 −$1,451 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire May 30 $1,906 −$1,897 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire May 30 $1,313 +$385 +29%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5 May 30 $3,045 +$653 +21%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 28 $1,630 −$1,617 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $3,797 +$864 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Prelims) Apr 25 $10,111 −$10,062 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $656 +$112 +17%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $3,972 +$1,425 +36%
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5 Apr 23 $1,829 +$342 +19%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $7,280 +$614 +8%
Spread: Thunder (-17.5) Apr 22 $1,042 −$1,025 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $55 3d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY No 70¢ $179 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1,104 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $26 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1,160 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $26 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 82¢ $1,526 13d
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) BUY Golden Knights 82¢ $3,050 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $497 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $266 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1,456 13d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 79¢ $1,499 15d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 73¢ $735 16d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 73¢ $508 16d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 80¢ $706 16d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 80¢ $813 16d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Los Angeles Sparks 73¢ $879 17d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ $655 17d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 79¢ $601 17d
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 70¢ $431 18d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 50¢ $685 18d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $168 18d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 73¢ $862 19d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 47¢ $449 19d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 77¢ $571 19d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 76¢ $642 19d
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 91¢ $2,943 19d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Knicks 44¢ $255 19d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 41¢ $300 19d
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun BUY New York Liberty 89¢ $1,083 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 414 history records