Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4e9…970c sports 185 markets active 7d ago coverage 742d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$120 (-8%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate70%130W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$90
other 17% −$28
crypto 2% −$5
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -0.8% -10.3% 69% 54% -13.1%
≤90d 36 -2.4% -11.7% 75% 47% -15.0%
all 185 -7.8% -16.6% 70% 51% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 51% -16.6%
10% -24.6% 35% -24.6%
15% -31.9% 21% -31.9%
20% -38.6% 9% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

742d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses130 / 55
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 185
History coverage742d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $70 +$8 +11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $89 +$10 +11%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $80 +$9 +11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $77 +$3 +4%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $33 +$44 +134%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $27 +$7 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 $0 +2%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $21 +$5 +23%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $1 +$1 +73%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $24 −$24 -99%
ITF Gimcheon: Tai Leonard Sach vs Sora Fukuda May 22 $16 +$7 +44%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $18 +$1 +3%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina May 21 $18 −$18 -99%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Camila Osorio vs Panna Udvardy May 21 $19 −$19 -99%
Paris: Madison Keys vs Diane Parry May 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Leolia Jeanjean vs Leylah Fernandez May 17 $78 +$8 +11%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Lisa Zaar vs Alana Sm May 17 $73 +$3 +4%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maya Joint vs Ann Li May 17 $21 +$9 +43%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Da May 17 $31 +$11 +34%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners May 17 $52 +$2 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 17 $51 +$2 +4%
Paris: Diane Parry vs Alina Charaeva May 16 $22 +$25 +114%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Alana Smith vs Victor May 16 $22 +$3 +15%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Anastas May 16 $21 +$1 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $19 +$2 +9%
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds May 16 $3 $0 +5%
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles May 16 $3 $0 +6%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 16 $3 +$1 +17%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-04-18? Apr 29 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $17 +$3 +15%
Will New England Revolution vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw? Apr 19 $18 −$11 -60%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Apr 19 $21 +$6 +30%
Bulls vs. Raptors Feb 21 $1 $0 +33%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Feb 21 $2 $0 +22%
Nets vs. Magic Feb 21 $2 $0 +24%
Jazz vs. Hawks Feb 21 $2 +$1 +30%
Washington State Cougars vs. Oregon State Beavers Feb 21 $5 $0 +10%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Mavericks Feb 05 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2025-12-20? Feb 04 $3 +$1 +28%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming (BO3) Dec 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Villanova Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers Dec 20 $11 +$2 +15%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Devils Dec 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 82¢ $80 7d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 90¢ $70 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $89 7d
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 100¢ $89 7d
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 90¢ $80 7d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $80 7d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 95¢ $77 7d
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 42¢ $33 8d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 99¢ $34 8d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 79¢ $27 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 12d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 81¢ $21 13d
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson BUY Xiyu Wang 48¢ $2 17d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Magda Linette 100¢ $2 17d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Magda Linette 57¢ $1 17d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 59¢ $1 17d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $1 18d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $24 18d
ITF Gimcheon: Tai Leonard Sach vs Sora Fukuda BUY Tai Leonard Sach 69¢ $16 34d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Atlanta Braves 97¢ $18 34d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 61¢ $18 35d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Camila Osorio vs Panna Udvardy BUY Camila Osorio 72¢ $19 35d
Paris: Madison Keys vs Diane Parry BUY Madison Keys 87¢ $86 39d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Leolia Jeanjean vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 100¢ $86 39d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Leolia Jeanjean vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 90¢ $78 39d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Lisa Zaar vs Alana Sm SELL Lisa Zaar 100¢ $76 39d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Lisa Zaar vs Alana Sm BUY Lisa Zaar 96¢ $73 39d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maya Joint vs Ann Li SELL Ann Li 100¢ $30 39d
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Da SELL Daria Kasatkina 100¢ $42 39d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maya Joint vs Ann Li BUY Ann Li 69¢ $21 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 357 history records