Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B4 0xb4eb…1575 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$537 (+15%) realized +$573 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$439per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$139
other 48% +$613
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.1% -6.8% 67% 67% +12.4%
≤30d 6 +3.1% -6.8% 67% 67% +12.4%
≤90d 6 +3.1% -6.8% 67% 67% +12.4%
all 6 +3.1% -6.8% 67% 67% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 67% +12.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 67% +1.6%
15% -23.8% 50% -8.2%
20% -31.3% 17% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$160 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,269
Realized+$573
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$439
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 35¢ 34¢ $983 $949 −$34 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $322 $319 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $864 +$396 +46%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $256 +$81 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $293 −$260 -89%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $156 +$134 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $499 +$219 +44%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $120 −$59 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $43 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $75 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $207 1h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 35¢ $1,002 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,005 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $336 9h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $336 9h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $256 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $256 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $230 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 6¢ $33 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $299 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $293 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $290 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 25h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $56 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $56 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $64 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $64 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 53¢ $156 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $155 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $499 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,268.54 · official $1,268.54 (match) · 22 history records