Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4ec…1523 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$1
other 27% −$1
sports 14% +$9
politics 9% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 34 -1.6% -11.0% 35% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 3% -8.7%
10% -19.5% 3% -17.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.63 per $1 lost it wins $3.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage265d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 69¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $46 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $7 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $88 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $45 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $46 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $52 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $52 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 28 $32 $0 -1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $32 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $24 +$9 +35%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 20 $18 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Oct 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $43 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $47 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $46 6h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $12 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $28 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $21 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $14 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $6 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $39 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $39 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $46 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $46 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $46 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $45 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $40 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $10 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $35 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $45 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $46 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records