Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb4f2…7851
politics · 176 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
+$50,259 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$30,403 · open +$19,327
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY
Net worth$61,584
Realized+$30,403
Unrealized+$19,327
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses111 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)172 / 176
History coverage522d
Avg bet$10,233
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 4 History 172 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,849
7 days+$10,052
14 days+$20,058
30 days−$18,240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 50¢ $14,888 $23,178 +$8,291 (+56%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $17,076 $23,059 +$5,983 (+35%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 98¢ $10,292 $15,346 +$5,054 (+49%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 82¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 90¢ $1,887 $0 −$1,887 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 90¢ $44,401 $0 −$44,401 (-100%)
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? No $2,095 $0 −$2,095 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ $13,852 $0 −$13,852 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,621 +$959 +59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $25 +$11 +45%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $9,655 +$1,899 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $6,322 +$6,980 +110%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $22,341 +$203 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 02 $40 +$1,295 +3233%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? Jun 02 $757 +$619 +82%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 02 $8,208 +$8,091 +99%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 25 $4,053 −$744 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $45,297 −$13,852 -31%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 23 $9,800 +$200 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $48,937 −$44,279 -90%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $7,759 +$3,198 +41%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $1,887 −$1,887 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $2,107 +$1,245 +59%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $4,678 +$9,346 +200%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $114 +$25 +22%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 18 $12,335 +$8,452 +68%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $4,531 +$3,707 +82%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $15,720 +$2,994 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 04 $33,409 −$26,479 -79%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 02 $2,961 +$223 +8%
Will anyone say "America" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 24 $58,662 +$2,528 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Apr 24 $54 −$54 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Apr 24 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 24 $1,750 −$1,750 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Apr 24 $2,026 −$2,026 -100%
Michigan vs. Texas Apr 24 $2,026 −$2,026 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Apr 24 $42,957 −$4,213 -10%
East Carolina Pirates vs. North Texas Mean Green Apr 24 $1,753 −$1,721 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 24 $5,108 −$5,108 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $2,990 −$2,990 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Apr 24 $30,111 −$10,499 -35%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Apr 24 $4,254 −$4,254 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Apr 24 $9,560 −$9,560 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $1,182 +$625 +53%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $2,095 −$2,095 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 11 $518 −$482 -93%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $69,300 +$700 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $36,820 +$16,569 +45%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 05 $3,590 +$1,410 +39%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $73,141 +$3,527 +5%
Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy A Mar 16 $66 +$4 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March? Mar 16 $1,900 +$31 +2%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Mar 16 $324 +$5 +2%
Will Leavitt say "State of the Union" during the next White House Pres Mar 16 $472 +$104 +22%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Mar 16 $595 +$1 +0%
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at t Mar 16 $14,068 +$951 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% −$46,402
politics 23% +$46,122
other 17% +$13,646
tech 12% +$17,756
crypto 4% +$2,692
sports 4% +$4,466
culture 3% +$1,592
economics 2% +$1,127
finance 1% +$8,731
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 91¢ $403 38h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 58¢ $1,566 41h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 58¢ $174 41h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 38¢ $73 41h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 38¢ $2,064 41h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 83¢ $9,655 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 43¢ $8 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 44¢ $440 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 44¢ $2,396 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $1,212 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $6 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 43¢ $70 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 70¢ $4 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 43¢ $1,669 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 69¢ $11 43h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 68¢ $10 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,877 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $24 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $69 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $37 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,726 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $849 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2,900 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2,842 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $35 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,540 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +47.0% +33.0% 100% 80% +13.2%
≤30d 18 +247.1% +214.1% 78% 67% -22.4%
≤90d 51 +63.3% +47.7% 59% 35% -18.9%
all 172 +49.7% +35.5% 65% 37% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.5% 37% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here +22.5% 26% -16.8%
15% +10.7% 22% -24.8%
20% -0.2% 17% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61,583.72 · official $61,583.59 (match) · 3500 history records