Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:07:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb4f2…7862
other · 11 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$20,765 +768%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,030 · open +$1,814
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33,203
Realized+$5,030
Unrealized+$1,814
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Open positions27
Markets (closed)21 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day1767.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 27 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,030
7 days+$5,030
14 days+$5,030
30 days+$5,030
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4,309 $4,668 +$359 (+8%)
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,349 $3,628 +$279 (+8%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,000 $3,250 +$250 (+8%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,724 $2,918 +$195 (+7%)
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,300 $2,684 +$383 (+17%)
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,107 $2,459 +$351 (+17%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,761 $2,054 +$293 (+17%)
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,776 $1,924 +$148 (+8%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,900 $1,583 −$317 (-17%)
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,670 $1,392 −$278 (-17%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,601 $1,334 −$267 (-17%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,200 $1,300 +$100 (+8%)
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,188 $1,287 +$99 (+8%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $945 $1,024 +$79 (+8%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $700 $750 +$50 (+7%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $700 $750 +$50 (+7%)
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $114 $138 +$24 (+21%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $43 $53 +$11 (+25%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 81¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+2093%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+119%)
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Jun 12 $0 $0 -180%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu have the best domestic openi Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Porto win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Jun 12 $0 +$958 +79872392%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jun 12 $130 −$136 -104%
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$1,409 +74180000%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Jun 12 $429 +$127 +30%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 12 $85 +$597 +704%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $420 - 425b on February 28? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $102 +$1,739 +1711%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 11 $806 +$242 +30%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $100 +$100 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% +$1,118
economics 9% +$352
politics 4% +$2,424
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 18m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $3 22m
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 29m
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 33m
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 33m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38m
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40m
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 46m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $1 46m
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+213.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +246.4% +213.4% 33% 33% +136.1%
≤30d 21 +246.4% +213.4% 33% 33% +136.1%
≤90d 21 +246.4% +213.4% 33% 33% +136.1%
all 21 +246.4% +213.4% 33% 33% +136.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1767.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +213.4% 33% +136.1%
10% ← realistic here +183.4% 33% +113.5%
15% +156.0% 24% +92.9%
20% +130.9% 24% +73.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,203.03 · official $33,203.03 (match) · 3500 history records