Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb4f3…999f sports 335 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$6,955 (-8%) realized −$7,088 · open +$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate55%179W / 148L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day95.6pace
Fees−$496est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,837now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$1,373
other 28% −$3,232
world 1% −$88
crypto 0% +$1,502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -25.3% -32.4% 44% 24% -34.3%
≤30d 250 +22.9% +11.2% 50% 28% -15.2%
≤90d 327 +17.1% +5.9% 55% 32% -14.1%
all 327 +17.1% +5.9% 55% 32% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.9% 32% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -4.2% 22% -22.3%
15% -13.5% 18% -29.8%
20% -22.0% 14% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$112 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$1,837
Realized−$7,088
Unrealized+$133
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses179 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$496
Open positions11
Markets (closed)327 / 335
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$250
Trades / day95.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 64¢ 64¢ $1,020 $1,012 −$8 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $208 $251 +$44 (+21%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $60 $192 +$132 (+221%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 20¢ $45 $102 +$58 (+128%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $90 $80 −$10 (-11%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $80 $70 −$10 (-12%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $62 +$8 (+14%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $28 −$28 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-75%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? No 31¢ 69¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+124%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $437 +$34 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $46 −$27 -58%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $56 −$15 -27%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $62 +$24 +38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $150 +$25 +17%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 21 $462 −$462 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,356 +$142 +10%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,251 +$86 +7%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $93 −$93 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $248 +$13 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $2,246 +$150 +7%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $90 +$5 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $973 +$154 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1,028 +$48 +5%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $110 −$24 -22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $401 +$11 +3%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $394 +$7 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $28 +$72 +257%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 19 $2,189 −$281 -13%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $783 −$783 -100%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $1,126 −$1,126 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $57 +$43 +75%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $100 +$55 +55%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $62 −$23 -37%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $62 −$23 -37%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $62 −$4 -6%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $112 −$22 -19%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,837 +$248 +9%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,787 +$167 +9%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $1,567 +$232 +15%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $2,049 +$217 +11%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $56 −$6 -11%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $55 −$16 -29%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $23 −$10 -41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6,674 −$6,192 -93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 15 $600 −$600 -100%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,577 −$1,577 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 90¢ $472 5m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 14m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 14m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 14m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 15m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 15m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $113 39m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 44m
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 44m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $41 44m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $85 44m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 83¢ $437 59m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $1,031 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $272 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $927 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $100 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $110 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $80 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL IR Iran 100¢ $10 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 90¢ $1,333 3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 84¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,836.76 · official $1,836.76 (match) · 3500 history records