Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb4f5…9529
other · 12 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$6 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 4 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +90%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% +$5
sports 29% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 10h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 26h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $8 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +57.4% +42.4% 38% 38% +18.0%
≤30d 8 +57.4% +42.4% 38% 38% +18.0%
≤90d 8 +57.4% +42.4% 38% 38% +18.0%
all 8 +57.4% +42.4% 38% 38% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.4% 38% +18.0%
10% +28.8% 38% +6.7%
15% +16.4% 38% -3.6%
20% +4.9% 38% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.89 · official $4.89 (match) · 17 history records