Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B4 0xb4f7…89d6 world 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$88 (-6%) realized −$50 · open −$38

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip

Net edge-42%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%2W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$94per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Kalshi-fit87%portable

Net worth$1,040now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-42.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	7	-36.3%	-42.4%	29%	29%	-25.0%
all	7	-36.3%	-42.4%	29%	29%	-25.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-42.4%	29%	-25.0%
10%	-47.9%	29%	-32.2%
15%	-52.9%	29%	-38.8%
20%	-57.5%	14%	-44.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -36% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$55 vs −$33 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.66 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage

Net worth$1,040

Realized−$50

Unrealized−$38

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses2 / 5

Open positions8

Markets (closed)7 / 15

History coverage95d

Avg bet$94

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$569	$505	−$63 (-11%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	7¢	9¢	$219	$306	+$88 (+40%)
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	17¢	10¢	$117	$65	−$52 (-45%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	9¢	12¢	$49	$63	+$14 (+28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	6¢	$33	$42	+$9 (+28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$43	$38	−$5 (-12%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Yes	15¢	6¢	$40	$15	−$25 (-63%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	6¢	$10	$6	−$3 (-35%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	May 18	$20	−$20	-100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	May 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	May 18	$61	−$61	-100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	May 01	$21	−$21	-100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	May 01	$25	+$48	+194%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in April?	Apr 29	$55	−$52	-95%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April?	Apr 26	$130	+$61	+47%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$28	1h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$26	1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$50	9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$8	8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$34	8d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$49	11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	11d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$16	11d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$30	11d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	21d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	7¢	$23	34d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	6¢	$35	38d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$20	38d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$29	43d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	43d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	12¢	$9	44d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	5¢	$26	44d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	46d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	6¢	$9	46d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	6¢	$9	46d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$27	50d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	10¢	$40	52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY Yes	20¢	$21	55d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	BUY Yes	28¢	$20	55d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$42	57d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in April?	SELL Yes	0¢	$3	57d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April?	SELL Yes	5¢	$19	60d
Trump out as President before 2027?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	60d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,040.35 · official $1,040.35 (match) · 166 history records