Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb4f9…1e01 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$3
other 27% $0
politics 6% $0
tech 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 25% -8.8%
≤30d 8 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 25% -8.8%
≤90d 8 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 25% -8.8%
all 38 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 5% -9.0%
10% -19.2% 3% -17.7%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage457d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $83 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $48 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $41 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 03 $3 $0 -0%
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suri Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 1? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will BTC close above $102K on May 23? May 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will Germany win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 23 $1 $0 -8%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $14 $0 +1%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 15 $14 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 15h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 25h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 25h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 27h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 30h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 30h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $20 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $20 43h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $16 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $19 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $41 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $19 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.40 · official $2.40 (match) · 125 history records