Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B4 0xb4fa…9fc2 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$56 (-43%) realized −$56 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip

Net edge-46%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day2.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-45.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-40.1%	-45.8%	25%	25%	-75.1%
≤30d	4	-40.1%	-45.8%	25%	25%	-75.1%
≤90d	4	-40.1%	-45.8%	25%	25%	-75.1%
all	4	-40.1%	-45.8%	25%	25%	-75.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-45.8%	25%	-75.1%
10%	-51.0%	25%	-77.4%
15%	-55.8%	25%	-79.6%
20%	-60.1%	25%	-81.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -72% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -40% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$23 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.18 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$47

Realized−$56

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage3d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day2.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Over	51¢	50¢	$47	$47	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 21	$9	+$13	+139%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$50	−$48	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$48	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$2	15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$20	15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	100¢	$22	15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	41¢	$9	16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$50	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.89 · official $46.89 (match) · 7 history records