Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:56:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb4fc…a926 crypto 217 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,895 (+0%) realized +$1,440 · open +$455
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate50%105W / 103L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$6,879per market
Trades / day44.9pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$47,189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$26,329
crypto 12% −$8,459
other 11% +$8,094
politics 1% +$586
sports 1% −$1,576
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.0% -12.3% 67% 33% -9.0%
≤30d 69 -9.3% -17.9% 58% 26% -7.8%
≤90d 208 +2.3% -7.4% 50% 28% -7.9%
all 208 +2.3% -7.4% 50% 28% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 28% -7.9%
10% -16.3% 18% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -24.4% 13% -24.7%
20% -31.8% 12% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$4,545) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$594 vs −$368 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$47,189
Realized+$1,440
Unrealized+$455
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses105 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions11
Markets (closed)208 / 217
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$6,879
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $26,426 $26,924 +$498 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $12,824 $13,154 +$330 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $2,871 $3,121 +$250 (+9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $2,500 $2,636 +$136 (+5%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 50¢ 75¢ $250 $374 +$124 (+49%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 62¢ 72¢ $264 $310 +$46 (+18%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 32¢ 8¢ $1,150 $302 −$848 (-74%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 14¢ 8¢ $300 $156 −$144 (-48%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $59 $80 +$21 (+35%)
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? No 74¢ 99¢ $58 $77 +$19 (+33%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 46¢ 81¢ $31 $55 +$24 (+77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $1,759 +$234 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $106 +$122 +116%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $98,731 −$2,013 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10,044 +$2,265 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $8,826 +$754 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $452 −$452 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $7,685 +$315 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $1,540 +$469 +30%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $6,006 +$400 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $2,444 −$1,194 -49%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $150 +$150 +100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $247 +$10 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $2,745 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $106 −$55 -52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $41,590 +$666 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $181 +$275 +152%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $5,666 −$142 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $191 +$53 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $195 +$277 +142%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $738 +$245 +33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $23,143 +$89 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $31,066 +$440 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $2,968 +$176 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $64 −$60 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $8,033 +$243 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $53 −$29 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $66 −$62 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $206 −$200 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $212 −$200 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $106 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $107 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $479 +$88 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $117 −$90 -76%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $74,534 −$315 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $75,030 +$2,226 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $27,954 +$3,006 +11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $60 +$14 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5,196 −$595 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $3,294 −$533 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1,000 −$25 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 29 $381 −$369 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 29 $2,014 +$106 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $47,120 −$499 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $64 +$2 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $280 +$716 +256%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $180 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $500 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,400 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $300 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $380 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $2,000 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $182 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $98 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $159 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3,840 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $661 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 35¢ $185 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 38¢ $44 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 15¢ $106 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2,820 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,220 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $600 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $258 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $14 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1,000 34h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 26¢ $205 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,188.68 · official $47,188.55 (match) · 3500 history records