Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb4fe…b350 sports 508 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 151d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,277 (-6%) realized −$6,219 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%269W / 230L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$1,552est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$944now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$462
7 days−$556
14 days−$1,723
30 days−$2,583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$2,148
other 11% −$2,358
crypto 0% +$66
economics 0% −$201
world 0% +$169
politics 0% −$116
tech 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +34.2% +21.4% 49% 43% -14.8%
≤30d 154 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 41% -15.9%
≤90d 423 -1.4% -10.8% 54% 45% -12.2%
all 499 +0.5% -9.1% 54% 44% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 44% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 36% -21.4%
15% -25.7% 28% -29.0%
20% -33.0% 19% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$106 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$944
Realized−$6,219
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses269 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,552
Open positions9
Markets (closed)499 / 508
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$197
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $272 $266 −$5 (-2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 52¢ $250 $262 +$12 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $177 $160 −$16 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $110 $80 −$30 (-27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $52 $62 +$10 (+18%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 56¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+10%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $36 $5 −$32 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $155 +$124 +80%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $70 +$29 +42%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $53 −$47 -89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 −$52 -52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $69 +$71 +103%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $83 +$161 +194%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $253 +$98 +39%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$40 -77%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $89 +$11 +12%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $64 −$59 -92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $70 +$6 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $66 +$14 +22%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $46 +$14 +31%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $437 −$279 -64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $298 −$294 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $156 −$152 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $64 −$50 -79%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $123 −$121 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$98 -95%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $684 −$284 -42%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $37 −$36 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $97 −$60 -62%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $205 −$130 -63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $194 +$209 +108%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $146 −$84 -58%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $94 −$93 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $389 +$19 +5%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $169 +$122 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $289 +$175 +61%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $110 +$7 +7%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $228 +$338 +148%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $57 +$40 +71%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $556 −$18 -3%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $126 +$74 +59%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $64 +$60 +94%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $84 −$20 -24%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $90 +$71 +80%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $54 +$57 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $596 −$227 -38%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 09 $32 −$29 -89%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $53 −$52 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $68 +$27 +39%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $51 +$49 +97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $115 +$53 +46%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $178 −$168 -94%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $150 −$127 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $53 51m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $279 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 92¢ $92 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights $7 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 16¢ $9 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 16¢ $7 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox $6 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 14¢ $48 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $141 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $102 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $53 5h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $54 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $69 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $3 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $2 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $19 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $159 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $2 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $6 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 78¢ $312 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $12 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $943.95 · official $943.95 (match) · 3500 history records