Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb500…358f sports 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$3
politics 23% −$1
other 20% −$2
economics 9% $0
crypto 8% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 157 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 148
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage168d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $31 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $41 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $261 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $151 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Feb 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $85 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 09 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 5h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 13d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 26d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $41 34d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $41 37d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 124d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 124d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $11 124d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $28 124d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $38 124d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $35 124d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $35 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $36 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 124d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $42 124d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $43 124d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $36 124d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $36 124d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $14 124d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $29 124d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $29 124d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $23 124d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $37 124d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $42 124d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $42 124d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $39 124d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $39 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 505 history records