Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb500…1cde crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,842 (-13%) realized −$1,804 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 28L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$219
7 days−$1,596
14 days−$1,596
30 days−$1,596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$1,626
crypto 38% −$235
other 2% −$8
finance 0% −$50
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -16.5% -24.4% 50% 50% -35.3%
≤30d 12 -16.5% -24.4% 50% 50% -35.3%
≤90d 12 -16.5% -24.4% 50% 50% -35.3%
all 59 +5.7% -4.3% 53% 47% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 47% -24.2%
10% -13.5% 46% -31.5%
15% -21.8% 39% -38.1%
20% -29.5% 34% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$188 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$3,311
Realized−$1,804
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions10
Markets (closed)59 / 69
History coverage171d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 52¢ $530 $525 −$5 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 50¢ $500 $500 +$0 (+0%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 58¢ 57¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 52¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 60¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 67¢ 66¢ $399 $392 −$7 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $106 $128 +$22 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $106 $111 +$4 (+4%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 31¢ 30¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $108 $74 −$34 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $507 +$457 +90%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $464 +$464 +100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $504 +$172 +34%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $304 +$196 +65%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $504 −$500 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $350 +$180 +52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $754 −$750 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $253 +$156 +62%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $617 −$610 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $499 −$495 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $619 −$616 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 25 $114 +$41 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 25 $450 −$444 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 25 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 25 $100 −$59 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 24? Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 24 $100 +$94 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$48 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$50 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 23 $100 +$93 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 23 $100 +$101 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 22 $200 +$69 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 22 $56 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 22 $136 −$15 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 22 $300 +$77 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 22 $248 +$200 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 22 $469 −$219 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 22 $217 −$158 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 22 $227 −$167 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 22 $553 +$166 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 22 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 22 $202 −$185 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 22 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 22 $35 +$65 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 22 $100 +$63 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 22 $160 +$139 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 22 $56 +$78 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 22 $100 +$88 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 31 $20 +$66 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 31 $347 +$180 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 24 $20 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 04 $57 +$47 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 04 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 04 $200 −$180 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $403 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $506 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $507 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $508 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $102 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $537 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $506 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $464 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $507 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $504 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $504 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $304 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $428 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $3 46h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 46h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 46h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5 46h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $24 47h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $11 47h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $61 47h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $20 47h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $42 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $198 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $10 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $617 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $17 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $3 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $243 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,311.31 · official $3,311.31 (match) · 299 history records