Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb501…9a53 weather 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$135 (+2%) realized +$273 · open −$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%80W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$466
7 days+$513
14 days−$906
30 days+$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$35
sports 1% −$8
crypto 1% −$30
other 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +59.9% +44.7% 50% 50% +29.8%
≤30d 88 +15.3% +4.3% 38% 34% -4.2%
≤90d 172 +6.2% -3.9% 40% 36% -9.0%
all 197 +11.0% +0.4% 41% 36% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 36% -8.4%
10% -9.2% 35% -17.2%
15% -18.0% 31% -25.2%
20% -26.0% 31% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$31 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$273
Unrealized−$138
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses80 / 117
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)197 / 203
History coverage119d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $26 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $136 $0 −$136 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Jun 19 $138 +$361 +261%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $110 +$159 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $61 −$58 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 −$68 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $94 −$91 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $91 +$159 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $112 −$112 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $13 +$68 +524%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $78 +$21 +26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $33 −$28 -85%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $104 +$136 +131%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $80 −$69 -86%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $110 +$18 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$76 +382%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $19 −$6 -32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $108 −$83 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 27? Jun 11 $12 −$6 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on May 26? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 27? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 31? Jun 11 $39 −$20 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 30? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 2? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 2? Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 11 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ma Jun 11 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 3? Jun 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 1? Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 3? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 11 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 29? Jun 11 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 28? Jun 11 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma Jun 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 11 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 11 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 −$32 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 35m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 35m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 36m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY Yes 39¢ $28 38m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 43m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 43m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 43m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 44m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $140 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $138 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $270 44h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $48 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $48 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.28 · official $169.33 (match) · 1285 history records