Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B5
0xb502…30b9
other · 33 markets active 11h ago
1.0score
+$749 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$105 · open +$277
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,698
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$277
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions29
Markets (closed)4 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 29 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$105
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $475 $614 +$139 (+29%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 35¢ $200 $251 +$51 (+25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 58¢ $192 $248 +$56 (+29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 45¢ 50¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 35¢ 38¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 29¢ 30¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 64¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 65¢ 66¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 50¢ 76¢ $54 $82 +$28 (+51%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 25¢ 42¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+68%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $40 $37 −$2 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $100 −$15 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 13 $100 −$19 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $100 −$20 -20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 76% +$211
other 16% −$86
finance 7% +$50
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 60¢ $174 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $733 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,884 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $85 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 62¢ $81 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 55¢ $80 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $100 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $100 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $100 17h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $200 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 65¢ $100 17h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 63¢ $100 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $400 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $500 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $200 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $500 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $200 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $500 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $200 42h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 42h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 42h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -38.7% -44.5% 0% 0% -36.6%
≤30d 4 -38.7% -44.5% 0% 0% -36.6%
≤90d 4 -38.7% -44.5% 0% 0% -36.6%
all 4 -38.7% -44.5% 0% 0% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.5% 0% -36.6%
10% ← realistic here -49.8% 0% -42.7%
15% -54.7% 0% -48.2%
20% -59.1% 0% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,698.01 · official $2,698.10 (match) · 49 history records