Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb507…e1d3 other 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-7%) realized −$67 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate46%47W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$122
14 days−$68
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$35
sports 28% −$69
crypto 23% −$45
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -32.9% -39.3% 34% 34% -39.6%
≤30d 102 -27.0% -34.0% 46% 33% -17.5%
≤90d 102 -27.0% -34.0% 46% 33% -17.5%
all 102 -27.0% -34.0% 46% 33% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 33% -17.5%
10% -40.3% 25% -25.4%
15% -46.0% 17% -32.6%
20% -51.3% 13% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses47 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)102 / 115
History coverage28d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-11%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Yes 23¢ 27¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+70%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 13¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Will Ibrahima Konaté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -69%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $13 $0 -4%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 +$4 +71%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ shots Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 Super Chess Classic Romania? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8 +$5 +60%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $41 +$9 +22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$1 -21%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $7 +$1 +14%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -18%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $7 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +112%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. Chile: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +165%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $83 +$23 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$11 +208%
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +60%
France leading at halftime? Jun 04 $20 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 02 $105 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $3 23m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $2 1h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $4 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 SELL Over 79¢ $12 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $13 22h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes 89¢ $23 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $9 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Over 84¢ $74 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 29h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $50 29h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $5 29h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 33h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 38¢ $10 34h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 34h
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 34h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 34h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $10 38h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 38h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $4 39h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 18¢ $2 40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $3 41h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 67¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.96 · official $82.96 (match) · 216 history records