Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:50:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B5 0xb50a…f151 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$154 (+1%) realized +$144 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate72%18W / 7L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$530per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$478
7 days+$478
14 days+$478
30 days+$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$356
other 5% +$475
crypto 4% +$17
world 1% $0
politics 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +176.1% +149.8% 100% 100% +103.9%
≤30d 5 +107.7% +87.9% 100% 60% +66.5%
≤90d 8 +67.4% +51.4% 88% 38% +43.8%
all 25 +53.9% +39.2% 72% 44% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.2% 44% -8.6%
10% +25.9% 40% -17.4%
15% +13.7% 36% -25.4%
20% +2.6% 36% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$570) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late +65% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$415 vs −$1,222 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses18 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage228d
Avg bet$530
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 53¢ 52¢ $371 $368 −$4 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $126 $139 +$13 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $305 +$215 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $17 +$3 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $59 +$261 +442%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 06 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 06 $101 +$9 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 27 $99 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 6? Apr 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 27? Feb 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jan 26 $30 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Clippers Dec 29 $546 +$754 +138%
Warriors vs. Raptors Dec 29 $570 +$930 +163%
Cavaliers vs. Rockets Dec 28 $976 +$624 +64%
Jazz vs. Spurs Dec 28 $451 +$2,581 +572%
Mavericks vs. Kings Dec 28 $656 +$944 +144%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 27 $922 +$518 +56%
Celtics vs. Pacers Dec 26 $550 −$550 -100%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Dec 26 $1,184 +$416 +35%
Rockets vs. Lakers Dec 25 $900 −$900 -100%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Dec 23 $90 +$210 +233%
Suns vs. Lakers Dec 02 $4,950 −$4,950 -100%
Bucks vs. Cavaliers Nov 17 $98 −$98 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 15 $484 −$484 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder Nov 12 $351 −$351 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $376 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $305 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $59 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 90¢ $7 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 90¢ $120 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 98¢ $98 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 31d
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 BUY Yes 92¢ $101 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $110 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 152d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $30 178d
Pistons vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 42¢ $164 181d
Pistons vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 42¢ $1 181d
Pistons vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 42¢ $1 181d
Pistons vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 42¢ $1 181d
Pistons vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 42¢ $2 181d
Pistons vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 42¢ $7 181d
Pistons vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 42¢ $17 181d
Pistons vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 42¢ $1 181d
Pistons vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 42¢ $4 181d
Pistons vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 42¢ $44 181d
Pistons vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 42¢ $1 181d
Pistons vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 42¢ $126 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.59 · official $506.59 (match) · 189 history records