Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb50b…9cd0 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-7%) realized −$167 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$23
sports 49% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +41.5% +28.0% 30% 30% -22.2%
≤30d 10 +41.5% +28.0% 30% 30% -22.2%
≤90d 10 +41.5% +28.0% 30% 30% -22.2%
all 10 +41.5% +28.0% 30% 30% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.0% 30% -22.2%
10% +15.7% 20% -29.7%
15% +4.6% 20% -36.5%
20% -5.7% 10% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$53 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 36¢ $133 $211 +$78 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $136 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $326 +$43 +13%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $69 +$34 +50%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $96 −$27 -28%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $102 −$99 -97%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $12 −$1 -8%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $98 −$86 -87%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $155 −$57 -37%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $19 +$136 +712%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $136 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $136 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $136 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $130 3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 90¢ $233 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $92 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $104 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $69 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $69 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $96 10h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $102 24h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 24h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 24h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 6¢ $13 24h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $98 25h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $98 25h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 27h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 27h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.97 · official $205.19 · 23 history records