Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb513…0b63 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ bot/MM pace (125 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$954 (+6%) realized +$961 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate59%32W / 22L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day125.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$344
other 8% −$172
sports 3% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (125 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -1.4% -10.8% 59% 43% -12.3%
≤30d 54 -1.4% -10.8% 59% 43% -12.3%
≤90d 54 -1.4% -10.8% 59% 43% -12.3%
all 54 -1.4% -10.8% 59% 43% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover125.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 43% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 30% -20.7%
15% -27.2% 17% -28.4%
20% -34.3% 9% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$109 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$961
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses32 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage1d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day125.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 47¢ 40¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $261 −$33 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $413 −$31 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $207 −$15 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $311 −$288 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $416 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $311 −$240 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $206 −$45 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $515 −$51 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$88 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $210 +$250 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $308 +$126 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$97 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $202 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $510 +$48 +9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,011 −$102 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $204 +$70 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $105 +$37 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $510 −$37 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $504 −$91 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $204 +$66 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $411 +$40 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $513 +$66 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $605 −$75 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $105 +$215 +205%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $403 +$24 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $303 +$40 +13%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $204 −$70 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $202 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $707 −$27 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$38 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $805 −$84 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $411 +$224 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $291 −$174 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $604 +$63 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $206 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $15 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $53 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $212 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $208 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $64 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $208 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $205 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $191 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $207 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $23 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $311 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $311 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $368 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $268 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $193 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.09 · official $52.66 · 153 history records