Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B5 0xb514…6f4b other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$143 (+23%) realized +$173 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$250
sports 9% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.4% -2.9% 62% 54% +33.1%
≤30d 13 +7.4% -2.9% 62% 54% +33.1%
≤90d 13 +7.4% -2.9% 62% 54% +33.1%
all 13 +7.4% -2.9% 62% 54% +33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 54% +33.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 46% +20.4%
15% -20.6% 38% +8.7%
20% -28.4% 31% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$12 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.67 per $1 lost it wins $5.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $205 +$158 +77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$27 -53%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +42%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 −$9 -85%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $56 +$53 +95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$34 +34%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 +$6 +151%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $71 +$79 +112%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $363 13m
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $185 25m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 41m
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 46m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 53m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? SELL Yes 9¢ $15 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL No 100¢ $13 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 67¢ $46 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY No 79¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL No 74¢ $8 23h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY No 90¢ $10 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 25h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 25h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.13 (match) · 34 history records