Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb514…09e6 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$155 (-21%) realized −$213 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$202
other 28% +$38
sports 26% +$20
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-81.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -79.5% -81.5% 0% 0% -65.9%
≤90d 3 -79.5% -81.5% 0% 0% -65.9%
all 3 -79.5% -81.5% 0% 0% -65.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.5% 0% -65.9%
10% -83.2% 0% -69.1%
15% -84.9% 0% -72.1%
20% -86.4% 0% -74.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$67 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$473
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)3 / 13
History coverage30d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup Goal Contributions H2H: Vitinha vs. Pedri Pedri 53¢ 59¢ $188 $209 +$20 (+11%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 35¢ $20 $120 +$100 (+498%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $108 $79 −$29 (-27%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-58%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-93%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $199 −$77 -39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 31 $75 −$75 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup Goal Contributions H2H: Vitinha vs. Pedri BUY Pedri 48¢ $29 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 41h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $40 7d
World Cup Goal Contributions H2H: Vitinha vs. Pedri BUY Pedri 56¢ $111 7d
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $122 9d
World Cup Goal Contributions H2H: Vitinha vs. Pedri BUY Pedri 51¢ $51 13d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 13d
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 13d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 13d
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $49 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $25 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 27d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $472.57 · official $472.61 (match) · 27 history records