Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb515…cd6b sports 311 markets active 18h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,967 (-6%) realized −$2,967 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%154W / 155L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$518est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$380
7 days+$871
14 days+$825
30 days−$590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$3,507
other 6% +$274
crypto 0% +$87
world 0% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +64.1% +48.4% 69% 67% +17.3%
≤30d 98 +10.1% -0.3% 48% 47% -16.2%
≤90d 273 +7.2% -3.0% 50% 49% -12.0%
all 309 +7.4% -2.8% 50% 49% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 49% -15.4%
10% -12.1% 48% -23.5%
15% -20.6% 48% -30.9%
20% -28.4% 46% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$150 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,967
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses154 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$518
Open positions0
Markets (closed)309 / 311
History coverage105d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 309 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $140 +$83 +60%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $127 +$105 +83%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $101 +$120 +119%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $49 +$78 +159%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $131 −$56 -43%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 Jun 19 $149 +$83 +56%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $48 −$48 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $48 +$50 +104%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $107 +$65 +60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $69 +$7 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira Jun 17 $10 +$46 +446%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $21 +$156 +759%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 +$41 +97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$27 -26%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $49 +$33 +67%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 +$69 +97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $74 +$34 +46%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$75 +75%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$67 +66%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $44 +$27 +63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$37 +197%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $108 +$92 +85%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 +$28 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $145 −$145 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$36 +143%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $45 +$53 +118%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $49 +$63 +127%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $72 +$62 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $72 −$71 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $41 +$32 +79%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $49 +$41 +83%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $144 −$141 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 54¢ $127 18h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 38¢ $49 18h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $101 18h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 41¢ $36 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 62¢ $140 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $75 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $30 33h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $101 34h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 67¢ $48 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 69¢ $98 38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $48 40h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 BUY 63¢ $149 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score AND France vs. Iraq: Both BUY 1¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 79¢ $75 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $69 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $35 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $5 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $28 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $7 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $6 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $44 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $100 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 62¢ $107 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $111 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $51 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 50¢ $43 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $75 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira BUY 18¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 713 history records