Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:11:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B5 0xb516…9b19 crypto 369 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$185 (-9%) realized −$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%150W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$87
14 days−$183
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -11.3% -19.8% 40% 35% -27.2%
≤30d 316 -13.5% -21.7% 44% 36% -20.4%
≤90d 368 -13.8% -22.0% 41% 34% -20.8%
all 368 -13.8% -22.0% 41% 34% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 34% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 30% -28.4%
15% -36.3% 25% -35.3%
20% -42.5% 20% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses150 / 218
Open positions1
Markets (closed)368 / 369
History coverage32d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 147 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +110%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +114%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.42 · official $1.33 (match) · 838 history records