Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B5 0xb517…06dd crypto 785 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (229 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,798 (+1%) realized +$4,445 · open −$2,647
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate49%409W / 425L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day229.1pace
Fees−$2,514est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7,240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$3,411
crypto 21% −$5,523
other 7% +$4,152
politics 3% −$1,045
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (229 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -46.4% -51.5% 31% 27% -12.0%
≤30d 834 -9.4% -18.0% 49% 30% -13.0%
≤90d 834 -9.4% -18.0% 49% 30% -13.0%
all 834 -9.4% -18.0% 49% 30% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover229.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 30% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 24% -21.3%
15% -33.0% 19% -28.9%
20% -39.6% 16% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$172 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$7,240
Realized+$4,445
Unrealized−$2,647
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses409 / 425
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$2,514
Open positions10
Markets (closed)834 / 785
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$309
Trades / day229.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 834 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 70¢ 50¢ $9,735 $7,035 −$2,700 (-28%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 16¢ 94¢ $10 $59 +$49 (+485%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $42 −$18 (-29%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $12 $38 +$26 (+221%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $16 $28 +$12 (+72%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $13 $16 +$2 (+19%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $13 $4 −$8 (-65%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $220 −$75 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $828 −$828 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 19 $810 −$810 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $235 −$235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $9,823 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $9,830 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $7,629 8h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 56¢ $7,598 8h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 16¢ $615 9h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 34¢ $3,467 9h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo SELL Anastasiia Sobolieva 100¢ $3,996 9h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 49¢ $1,990 11h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $1,498 20h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 69¢ $6,964 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 50¢ $2,012 25h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 57¢ $1,013 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $896 35h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,075 35h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 53¢ $537 45h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 64¢ $0 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 64¢ $4 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 64¢ $160 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $37 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,910 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $8,929 2d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 100¢ $8,849 3d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 77¢ $6,847 3d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 85¢ $1 3d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 85¢ $3 3d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 85¢ $15 3d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 85¢ $3 3d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 85¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,240.42 · official $8,354.90 · 3500 history records