Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

B5 0xb518…ec0b other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$787 (-21%) realized −$780 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip

Net edge-47%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate24%4W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$197per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-47.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	17	-41.8%	-47.4%	24%	24%	-31.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-47.4%	24%	-31.7%
10%	-52.4%	24%	-38.2%
15%	-57.0%	24%	-44.2%
20%	-61.2%	18%	-49.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -42% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +24% → late -100% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$347 vs −$167 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.64 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage

Net worth$353

Realized−$780

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)24%

Wins / losses4 / 13

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 19

History coverage208d

Avg bet$197

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$350	$343	−$7 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Jan 31	$300	−$300	-100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Jan 31	$400	−$400	-100%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-20?	Dec 20	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?	Dec 20	$270	−$270	-100%
Will Everton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Dec 20	$240	−$240	-100%
Will Bristol City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?	Dec 20	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-12-20?	Dec 20	$18	−$18	-100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?	Dec 19	$50	−$50	-100%
Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Dec 10	$90	−$90	-100%
Will Juventus FC vs. Páfos FC end in a draw?	Dec 10	$120	+$190	+158%
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-12-10?	Dec 10	$50	−$50	-100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	Dec 09	$600	+$399	+66%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?	Dec 09	$130	−$130	-100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-12-09?	Dec 09	$70	−$70	-100%
Will Leeds United vs. Liverpool end in a draw?	Dec 06	$240	+$759	+316%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-06?	Dec 06	$241	+$39	+16%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06?	Dec 06	$480	−$480	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$205	2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$154	2h
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	9¢	$300	142d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY Yes	5¢	$400	142d
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-20?	BUY Yes	5¢	$50	184d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$270	184d
Will Everton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$240	184d
Will Bristol City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$26	184d
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-12-20?	BUY Yes	18¢	$18	184d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?	BUY No	10¢	$50	185d
Will Juventus FC vs. Páfos FC end in a draw?	SELL Yes	31¢	$310	194d
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-12-10?	BUY Yes	5¢	$11	194d
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-12-10?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	194d
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-12-10?	BUY Yes	5¢	$25	194d
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-12-10?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	194d
Will Páfos FC win on 2025-12-10?	BUY Yes	5¢	$13	194d
Will Juventus FC vs. Páfos FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$120	194d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	SELL FC Bayern München	100¢	$999	195d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)	BUY FC Bayern München	60¢	$600	195d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$130	195d
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-12-09?	BUY Yes	7¢	$70	195d
Will Leeds United vs. Liverpool end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$999	198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-06?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-06?	SELL Yes	14¢	$2	198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-06?	SELL Yes	14¢	$236	198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-06?	SELL Yes	14¢	$35	198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-06?	SELL Yes	14¢	$2	198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-06?	SELL Yes	14¢	$5	198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-06?	BUY Yes	1¢	$0	198d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.44 · official $353.44 (match) · 37 history records