Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B5
0xb51b…b4d9
world · 193 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,772 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,303 · open +$6,260
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$49,903
Realized+$3,303
Unrealized+$6,260
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses80 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions94
Markets (closed)143 / 193
Avg bet$1,373
Trades / day98.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 94 History 143 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,199
7 days+$6,949
14 days−$6,653
30 days+$4,663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 33¢ 46¢ $13,097 $17,834 +$4,737 (+36%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $2,910 $5,664 +$2,754 (+95%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 40¢ $2,318 $4,427 +$2,109 (+91%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 76¢ 82¢ $2,723 $2,951 +$228 (+8%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 39¢ 56¢ $1,790 $2,577 +$787 (+44%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $1,820 $2,060 +$240 (+13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $1,382 $1,312 −$70 (-5%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $1,200 $1,200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $932 $912 −$20 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 16¢ $3,270 $882 −$2,387 (-73%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $700 $724 +$24 (+3%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 69¢ 64¢ $666 $626 −$40 (-6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 87¢ 64¢ $729 $541 −$188 (-26%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 37¢ 61¢ $304 $495 +$192 (+63%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $500 $483 −$17 (-3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 68¢ 79¢ $400 $465 +$65 (+16%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $300 $362 +$62 (+21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $240 $317 +$77 (+32%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 61¢ 54¢ $341 $302 −$39 (-12%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 42¢ 18¢ $686 $286 −$400 (-58%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $300 $277 −$23 (-8%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $310 $273 −$37 (-12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 46¢ $170 $257 +$87 (+51%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Yes 46¢ 51¢ $230 $255 +$25 (+11%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $200 $250 +$50 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$46 -92%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3,911 −$305 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,650 −$734 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $590 +$86 +14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $208 −$138 -66%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $118 +$89 +75%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $476 +$63 +13%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 11 $283 −$113 -40%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $60 +$30 +49%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $2,482 +$10,322 +416%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $1,045 −$400 -38%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $1,968 +$201 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $700 +$157 +22%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $352 +$48 +14%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $296 +$109 +37%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? Jun 09 $592 +$108 +18%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $684 +$104 +15%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $751 +$142 +19%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3,137 +$1,101 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $204 +$104 +51%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 09 $1,867 +$311 +17%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $1,702 +$242 +14%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $125 +$60 +48%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $100 +$11 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5,521 −$4,888 -88%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $90 +$68 +75%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $10 +$117 +1135%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $4,650 +$466 +10%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 05 $571 −$379 -66%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Zverev Jun 05 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $1,450 −$412 -28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $689 −$198 -29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 04 $702 +$249 +36%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 04 $321 +$76 +24%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $100 −$18 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 04 $81 +$12 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $2,837 −$246 -9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,862 +$1,994 +107%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $700 −$73 -10%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $5 +$10 +188%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $1,300 +$340 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $71 +$28 +40%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $5 +$37 +712%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% −$7,480
other 27% +$435
politics 5% +$11,719
tech 1% +$1,896
economics 1% +$915
crypto 1% +$2,007
sports 0% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $74 25m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 34m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 46¢ $200 51m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $344 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 73¢ $200 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 67¢ $100 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 49¢ $109 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 48¢ $62 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $238 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $171 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 43¢ $500 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +36.3% +23.3% 66% 60% +15.8%
≤30d 141 +42.6% +29.0% 57% 49% +6.0%
≤90d 143 +40.6% +27.2% 56% 48% +5.5%
all 143 +40.6% +27.2% 56% 48% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover98.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.2% 48% +5.5%
10% +15.0% 35% -4.6%
15% ← realistic here +3.9% 29% -13.8%
20% -6.3% 18% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49,902.78 · official $49,903.27 (match) · 3500 history records