Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb51b…0be4 crypto 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$695 (-7%) realized −$695 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate80%114W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$591
14 days−$720
30 days−$766
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$165
other 6% −$551
sports 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -27.3% -34.2% 69% 10% -24.3%
≤30d 143 -7.1% -16.0% 80% 29% -16.9%
≤90d 143 -7.1% -16.0% 80% 29% -16.9%
all 143 -7.1% -16.0% 80% 29% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 29% -16.9%
10% -24.0% 17% -24.9%
15% -31.3% 8% -32.1%
20% -38.1% 6% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$60 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$695
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses114 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage14d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $73 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $73 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $67 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $156 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $238 +$74 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $230 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $224 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $196 +$27 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $192 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $184 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $182 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $178 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $173 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $166 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $148 +$19 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $143 +$4 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $86 −$85 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $43 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $39 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $65 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $65 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $13 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $160 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $156 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $238 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $230 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $224 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $196 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $192 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $184 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $182 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $178 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $173 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $166 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $148 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $143 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $218 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $16 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $118 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 340 history records