Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:03:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb524…3486 other 17 markets active 8d ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9,898 (-99%) realized −$9,898 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$22
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$9,879
other 0% −$21
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +19.9% +8.5% 100% 100% +8.5%
≤30d 4 -44.0% -49.3% 50% 25% -35.1%
≤90d 7 -27.6% -34.5% 43% 29% -49.4%
all 17 -15.7% -23.7% 71% 12% -98.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 12% -98.8%
10% -31.0% 6% -98.9%
15% -37.7% 6% -99.0%
20% -43.8% 6% -99.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -99% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1,984 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,898
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage136d
Avg bet$590
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$2 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? Jun 03 $35 +$1 +4%
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) May 18 $19 +$16 +86%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 23 $20 −$1 -3%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5 Apr 17 $80 −$79 -98%
Spread: Kings (-3.5) Mar 10 $9,816 −$9,816 -100%
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? Mar 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Mar 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Mar 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 39 Feb 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 25 $2 $0 +9%
Will "Golden - HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, REI AMI" win Best Song Writ Feb 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? Feb 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31? Feb 25 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records